As we enter 2026, the world is balancing on a precipice. The turmoil caused by kinetic wars alongside deployment of economic weapons for strategic advantage is continuing to fragment societies. Rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are under siege in a new era in which trade, finance and technology are wielded as weapons of influence.

This report analyses global risks through three time frames: 2026, 2028 and 2036. In 2026, geopolitical and geoeconomic risks dominate the risk outlook, with close to one-third of GRPS respondents selecting either Geoeconomic confrontation (18% of respondents) or State-based armed conflict (14% of respondents) as the top risk for 2026 (Figure 11). Geoeconomic confrontation has increased two positions compared to last year and is now the number one risk, with State-based armed conflict falling from #1 to #2. There has also been an uptick in respondent concern for technological risks as we enter 2026, with Misinformation and disinformation at #5 (7% of respondents), and two new entrants into the top 10: Adverse outcomes of AI technologies at #8 (4% of respondents) and Cyber insecurity at #9 (3% of respondents).

While societal risks have remained stable as a concern compared to last year, in particular Societal polarization at #4 (selected by 7% of respondents) and Inequality at #10 (3% of respondents), there has been an uptick in respondents selecting Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms, at #7, up two positions from last year. Economic downturn remains in the top 10 at the start of 2026, at #6, selected by 5% of respondents.

By contrast, environmental risks have experienced a decline in share of respondents’ nominations compared with last year’s findings. Extreme weather events has moved from #2 to #3, falling by six percentage points (down to 8% of respondents) and Critical change to Earth systems has declined from #7 to #13.

Geoeconomic confrontation is also the top risk for 2028 according to the GRPS, up eight positions from last year and moving Misinformation and disinformation to #2 for the first time since 2023 (Figure 12). In highlighting Geoeconomic confrontation, respondents are indicating a deepening and broadening of their concerns: after a year of heightened uncertainty over trade policy, there is now a growing recognition of the escalating use of other economic and political instruments, from sanctions and regulations to capital restrictions and weaponization of supply chains, as tools of geoeconomic strategy. State-based armed conflict stands in fifth position, as competition among countries hardens.

Rising geoeconomic tensions between countries are also coinciding with elevated levels of inequality and uneven economic impacts of the transformations underway. While there have been upward movements in societal risks since last year’s survey, with Societal polarization (#3) up one position and Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms up two positions to #8, this risk category has overall remained relatively stable in its ranking. Inequality (#7), Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment (#13), Insufficient public infrastructure and societal protections (#20) and Infectious diseases (#27) all retain the same rankings as last year.

Deepening divides along political, cultural or identity lines within societies are being amplified by technological risks, such as Misinformation and disinformation (#2). This corrodes public discourse, weakens crisis responses and is propagated by technological advancements, such as in AI. These developments in turn heighten the risks of increased digital distrust and dilution of ambitious socio-environmental decision-making amid shifting short-term priorities and increasingly nationalistic narratives.

Technological risks overall remain an ongoing and significant concern for respondents, with Cyber insecurity at #6 reflecting the increasing frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, businesses and government. However, the low ranking of Adverse outcomes of AI at #30 in the two-year time frame indicates that respondents view these risks as still relatively distant or as a segment of other more current risks (such as State-based armed conflict or Misinformation and disinformation).

While environmental risks are present in the top 10 over the next two years, with Extreme weather events at #4 and Pollution at #9, there has been a reprioritization of global risks by respondents in the short term towards geoeconomic and societal shocks. Environmental risks have some of the largest declines in ranking, with Critical change to Earth systems down seven positions to #24, Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse down five positions to #26, and Pollution down three positions to #9 (Figure 13).

In contrast, economic risks have some of the sharpest rises in ranking compared with last year. Economic downturn at #11 and Inflation at #21 are each up eight positions from last year, followed closely by Asset bubble burst at #18, which increased seven positions. Disruptions to critical infrastructure is also up four positions to #22.

Across stakeholder groups surveyed, there is general alignment on the most severe global risks identified by respondents, with all stakeholders viewing Geoeconomic confrontation and Misinformation and disinformation as key risks over the next two years (Figure 14). Economic risks are of significant concern for some stakeholders; in particular, Economic downturn for both the government and the private sector. Compared with last year’s GRPS, environmental risks, in particular Extreme weather events, have seen relative declines in ranking across stakeholder groups, with no stakeholder group in aggregate perceiving Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse or Natural resource shortages to be a top 10 risk anymore, unlike last year.

When assessing risk perception by age groups surveyed, the findings indicate overall alignment across cohorts. However, younger groups are more concerned with Misinformation and disinformation than with Geoeconomic confrontation (Figure 15). Environmental risks are also a prominent concern for the under-30 age group, in particular.

Extreme weather events retains its position as the top risk for 2036, with half of the top 10 risks environmental in nature, similar to last year (Figure 16). Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse retains its position at #2, followed by Critical change to Earth systems at #3. Natural resource shortages at #6 has declined by two positions since last year, with Pollution at #10, like last year. Unlike in the two-year outlook, where these have declined in rankings, the existential nature of environmental risks means they remain as the top priorities over the next decade across stakeholders and age groups. The only broadly environmental risk that is not present as a top concern is Non-weather related natural disasters, ranking #33 on the 10-year outlook. Among the specific risks surveyed, Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse is the risk with the sharpest worsening in its severity score from the two-year outlook to the 10-year outlook.

Technological risks are also anticipated to worsen in severity over the next decade, with Adverse outcomes of AI technologies and Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies among the risks anticipated to experience some of the largest increases in severity score from the two-year outlook to the 10-year outlook (Figure 17). Misinformation and disinformation and Adverse outcomes of AI technologies have both increased one position in this year’s ranking compared to last year, to #4 and #5, respectively. Progress in both AI and quantum technologies are likely to accelerate over the next decade as each fuels further breakthroughs in the other, with potentially cascading risk impacts, including in the context of rising geoeconomic confrontation.

Societal risks are a dominant feature across time horizons, with Inequality at #7 and Societal polarization at #9 in the 10-year risk ranking. While the vast majority of global risks are anticipated to worsen over the next decade, one risk was expected by respondents to improve in severity score: Geoeconomic confrontation (#19) declines 18 positions from the two-year to the 10-year outlook. When asked about their geopolitical outlook for the world, responses are slightly more negatively skewed over the next two years than over the 10-year horizon. This finding suggests that while the outlook is still pessimistic, geopolitical risks are not anticipated to worsen over the next decade.

Economic risks are absent from the top 10 rankings when it comes to the outlook for the next decade, featuring primarily at the lower end of the risk ranking. However, there is a general upward movement in severity across economic risks, with Concentration of strategic resources and technologies (#11) and Disruptions to critical infrastructure (#23) both rising two positions compared to last year, and Debt (#17), Asset bubble burst (#27) and Economic downturn (#24) each rising three positions. Crime and illicit economic activity (#29) has the largest decline since last year’s survey, by 14 positions.

While geopolitical and economic risks do not feature as top long-term risks among the entire set of respondents, when looking at age cohorts, those under 30 are concerned by Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards (#10), while the 60-69-year age group is worried about State-based armed conflict (#10) (Figure 18).

Across stakeholder groups, there is diminishing concern for geopolitical risks looking ahead 10 years, although respondents from academia include State-based armed conflict in their top 10 (at #10). Concentration of strategic resources and technologies was also selected as a concern by both the 50-59-year age group (Figure 18, at #10) and by governments (also at #10) over the next decade (Figure 19).

The GRPS asks respondents to categorize the overall outlook on a qualitative scale: “calm”, “stable”, “unsettled”, “turbulent” or “stormy”. While respondents indicate short-term concern about the global outlook, with 50% of respondents selecting either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years, this worsens further towards 2036, with the figure rising to 57% for 2036 (Figure 20).

Pessimism overall is on the rise in the shorter term. Respondents’ perception of the global outlook over the next two years has worsened compared with last year’s findings. The GRPS shows a 14 percentage-point increase in respondents selecting a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years compared with last year’s findings, reflecting heightened short-term concern. However, the long-term figure is five percentage points lower than it was last year, with a slight uptick in respondents selecting either a calm, stable or unsettled outlook compared with last year.

This year, the survey also asked respondents about their outlook for the world by risk category: “societal”, “technological”, “economic”, “environmental” and “geopolitical”. Over the next two years, respondents are most concerned by geopolitical risks. When asked about the outlook for the world by risk category, close to two-thirds of respondents viewed the geopolitical outlook as turbulent or stormy (Figure 21). Conversely, technological risks have a relatively positive two-year outlook, with 32% of respondents selecting a calm or stable outlook.

Over the next 10 years, most respondents are concerned with environmental risks, with close to three-quarters of those surveyed selecting either a turbulent or stormy outlook for this risk category (Figure 22). While nearly all risk categories decline in the 10-year time frame when it comes to those who select a relatively positive outlook, technological risks remain the relative outlier, with 18% of respondents expecting a calm or stable outlook.

In four of the five risk categories for the two-year timeframe, a majority of respondents expect an unsettled outlook, with some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes. The exception is the geopolitical outlook, where a larger proportion (48%) select a turbulent outlook, with expected upheavals and an elevated risk of global catastrophes. For the 10-year period, the majority select a turbulent outlook for societal and geopolitical risks and a stormy one, with globally catastrophic risks looming, for environmental risks.

The future is not a single, fixed path but a range of possible trajectories, each dependent on the decisions we make today as a global community. The challenges highlighted in the GRPS – spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, economic uncertainty, and their collective impact on societies – underscore both the scale of the risks we face and our shared responsibility to shape the path ahead.

By anticipating today what may come next, we can better prepare for tomorrow’s challenges. The next chapter explores in depth these themes and their interconnections for six topics, three across a two-year time horizon and three across a 10-year time horizon.