Chief Economists Outlook 2025: What lies ahead for the global economy this year

The inauguration of President Trump on January 20, 2025, has captured the attention of chief economists worldwide. With the US playing a pivotal role in the global economy, policy changes in areas like trade, deregulation, migration, and taxes are expected to bring lasting impacts.

Around 60% of economists predict these shifts to be enduring rather than short-term disruptions, shaping the economic landscape for years to come.

The global trend toward fragmentation continues to strain interconnectedness, particularly in trade, data, and labor flows. Retaliatory trade measures and restrictions have escalated costs and increased inflation risks. These pressures are likely to exacerbate cost-of-living challenges globally. The debate over the right level of integration versus fragmentation remains contentious, with significant implications for economic stability.

The relationship between the US and China remains a major concern for economists, given its potential impact on global supply chains. Political instability and economic challenges are seen as feeding into a vicious cycle, threatening broader economic and social stability.

The World Economic Forum’s January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook reflects a downbeat mood, with 56% of experts anticipating global economic weakening over the next year. However, regional variations offer some optimism—44% of economists expect strong growth for the US, while 61% are optimistic about South Asia’s prospects.