Paul Swartz is a senior economist and executive director in Boston Consulting Group’s New York office. He works within the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute and is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).
Paul previously worked at AB Bernstein (Sanford C. Bernstein), where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on global macroeconomic issues while working at Goldman Sachs, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean's Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.
Paul’s research includes structural, cyclical, and firm-level themes addressing both strategic and tactical challenges for clients. He has contributed to pieces in CFR.org, Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, and other publications.
In 1983, Wassily Leontief, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, concluded that human labour would go the way of the horse after the automobile arrived – “first diminished and then eliminated.”
近几十年来，技术进步的惊人速度也未能提升美国等发达经济体的经济增长率。新冠疫情期间，许多人急于宣布，数字服务的加速应用将成为一个转折点。但正如我们当时（以及之后）所写的那样，数字服务对增长的强劲影响不太可能实现，并且最终也的确没有实现。
The astonishing pace of technological progress over recent decades has failed to lift growth rates in advanced economies such as the United States. During the pandemic, many rushed to dec...
The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And,...
A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital...
The idea that technology drives productivity growth is both a commonplace and a common frustration. Economies operating at or near the technological frontier have long seen sagging trend ...
