As COP28 approaches, humanity is still far from solving its biggest challenge. Following years of insufficient action, the ambition agreed upon in Paris in 2015 may be slipping out of reach, less than ten years after its formulation. To retain any chance of limiting global warming below 1.5°C by the end of this century, global emissions must decrease by around 7% annually until 2030 – but they are still increasing by 1.5% today.
The world is running out of time, and adaptation will not be sufficient to deal with the future the planet is steering towards. Regardless of the achievability of 1.5°C, this calls for a sharp change of course, to stem every tenth of a degree of warming.
To better understand what that entails, this paper brings a complementary perspective to the global stocktake initiated by the UN – adding a comprehensive view across nations, corporates, technologies and financing. It offers an honest assessment of where climate action is falling short – and what is required to succeed. A further report, to be published by January 2024, will detail recommendations.
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This article was first published on 21 November 2023 and was updated on 13 December 2023.