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Publicado: 19 junio 2024

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024

2.1 Transition Scores

This year saw the highest global average scores in the history of the ETI, with modest improvements in system performance of about 0.2% and strong progress in transition readiness, with a growth of 2%. The top 10 ranked countries in the ETI are predominantly advanced economies, mainly from Northern Europe. They collectively contribute only 1% of energy-related CO2 emissions, 3% of total energy supply and represent 2% of the global population. Sweden leads the rankings, followed by Denmark and Finland. Norway, however, has seen a drop in its ETI rank for the first time in many years, due to increasing electricity prices and decline in renewable capacity buildout.

Notably, six G20 economies feature in the ETI top 20, including France, Germany, Brazil, China, the UK and the US. Over the past year, infrastructure and regulatory commitment have experienced the most significant growth, increasing by approximately 4%, while innovation, and finance and investments have declined by 1%.

Over the past decade, the list of top performers in the ETI has remained relatively unchanged; although countries such as China, Brazil and Chile have entered the top 20 performers owing to their energy transition efforts over several years. Despite each country adopting a unique energy transition pathway, they share common characteristics, including:

  • Enhanced energy security through diverse energy and electricity mixes, as well as a mix of import partners
  • Improved energy and carbon intensity
  • Increased share of clean energy in the fuel mix
  • A carbon pricing mechanism
  • Strong and supportive regulatory environments to drive the energy transition

From 2015 to 2024, the global average scores for the ETI have consistently increased, driven by improvements in both system performance and transition readiness (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Global average Energy Transition Index and sub-index scores, 2015-2024

Major growing centres of demand, such as China, Brazil and India, have improved their ETI scores.

Out of 120 countries, 107 have shown progress over the past decade, with 30 countries seeing their scores increase by more than 10%. Notably, China and Brazil have progressed in recent years, primarily due to a ramp-up in renewable energy capacity additions and an overall increase in the share of clean energy. Both countries already rely on hydropower for a significant share of energy consumption and have committed to solar and wind capacity ramp-up. Different measures have come together in these countries over the years to create an enabling environment for the energy transition. Brazil’s long-term commitment to hydropower and biofuels,2727 combined with recent strides in solar energy, has set the country on the path to becoming a leader. Its focus on planning and policy instruments, as well as strengthening institutions, has built the right ecosystem for energy transition momentum.

Meanwhile, India has made strides in its clean energy infrastructure, with renewable energy and biomass comprising 42% of its power generation capacity,2828 making it the fourth-largest renewables market globally. With annual investments nearing $10 billion, India is driving the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the production of green hydrogen.2929 However, the significant dependence on coal in both China and India continues to be a major factor in their
emission intensity.3030

Last year, 17% of countries, including notable examples like France, China, Poland, Belgium and India, showcased improvement across equity, security and sustainability, highlighting the difficulty in establishing a balanced transition.

In 2024, a notable 28% of nations, including Kuwait, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mozambique and Tanzania, are actively transitioning towards a more balanced
energy system. This evolution is characterized by significant advancements in the lowest-scoring sub-index among equity, security and sustainability. Such progress indicates a strategic shift towards a more equitable, secure and sustainable energy landscape in these countries.

Meanwhile, improvements in ETI scores have slowed in Germany, Japan and the US over the past year.

In recent years, Germany has increased its coal-based energy production by 35% in 2022 compared to 2020,3131 to compensate for reduced reliance on Russian gas, raising its carbon intensity. Germany also phased out nuclear energy in April 2023 with plans to replace it with solar and wind energy. While solar and wind energy
adoption has increased, most of the gap has been filled by coal.3232 Japan has been significantly impacted by fluctuations in gas prices, leading to a drop in its equity scores due to challenges with energy affordability. Early success with clean hydrogen shows promising signs. The US has seen robust growth in ETI scores
over the past three years, with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)3333 playing a key role in providing the economic environment for renewable energy and EV adoption. However, the pace of the transition has decreased in the past year due to a backlog in connecting clean energy projects to the grid,3434 especially with large projects taking longer to connect. Additionally, while solar and wind are generally accepted by the public, local restrictions by homeowners driven by NIMBYism (not-in-my-backyard) pushed energy players to build assets in areas with strong potential for wind and solar while respecting the needs of local communities.3535

Among the new entrants in the top 20 are Latvia and Chile. Latvia has bolstered its sustainability performance with renewables contributing to approximately threequarters of its power generation, largely driven by hydropower and biofuels.3636 Additionally, Latvia has made strides in energy security by diversifying its import partners. Chile, on the other hand, has significantly improved its ETI score this year, with increased renewable energy capacity3737 leading to improved sustainability performance and reduced energy imports.

Despite these advancements, the global imperative to balance equity, sustainability and security remains paramount. Only 20 countries improved scores
across all three dimensions in the past year. The growing complexity of macroeconomic landscapes and escalating geopolitical tensions have introduced
additional challenges, underscoring the need for tailored pathways towards the energy transition to address these evolving dynamics effectively.

Figure 4: Regional scores and key insights: average scores by peer group – ETI 2024