Several environmental, macroeconomic and geopolitical events over the past decade have affected the energy system in myriad ways and highlighted the complexities of the energy transition. Over the past decade, the world has made significant strides towards transitioning to low-carbon energy systems, although not at the pace required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The lack of consistent and balanced progress for many countries highlights the challenge of navigating the energy transition.

By elevating energy security to be a cornerstone of the framework, advances in the secure dimension can be seen as countries aim for a stable and secure supply of energy to maintain economic growth, national security and the well-being of their populations. Very few countries, however, are advancing momentum across the equitable, secure and sustainable dimensions, and improvements in security are being delivered at the expense of the others. The strong competition for secured access to gas suppliers and stocks replenishment, along with concerns about security of supply, pose significant challenges for the upcoming winter. Additionally, some areas will come under future scrutiny, such as the importance of critical raw materials, upcoming regulatory obligations for reporting on sustainable investments, and the vulnerability of energy systems to extreme weather events.

While a decarbonized future energy system can provide energy security dividends from abundant and localized low-carbon energy sources, ensuring energy security and affordability through the transition will require fossil fuels in the medium term.²⁹ Countries will need to adjust demand and improve economics of supply to minimize emissions. Cleaner energy sources and technologies will be required in the next two to three years to meet 2030 targets and limit the effects of climate change. Most of these have existed for decades but will need greater and more targeted investment or incentives. To ensure an equitable transition, greater investment will also be required in skills training, research, innovation and incentives to build sustainable supply chains that protect ecosystems and cultures.³⁰ Policies have emerged but require implementation.

The focus of the energy transition needs to shift to more populous and developing nations in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, as they account for a significant portion of the world’s population as well as global carbon emissions. While several countries are committing to the energy transition and have vast renewable energy resources, they lack the finances and technical know-how to develop them fully. By collaborating and providing support, a more secure, sustainable and equitable future can be found for many. Bolstering the enabling environment will put these countries on the leading edge.

As for the upcoming COP28 summit, which will include the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake, an assessment of the world’s progress towards achieving its climate goals. The stocktake will capture what countries and stakeholders are doing or failing to do to fulfil the Paris Agreement. What is clear from this year’s ETI, however, is that countries must move at a faster pace than they are now to transform their energy systems; moreover, the window for such effort is closing. The actions taken in the early years of this decade of delivery will be critical in ensuring that strong, long-term ambition is supported by immediate progress.31 The focus must be on enhancing an equitable transition, which has been traded off rather than enabled by the focus on the secure and sustainable dimensions. The energy transition must be made resilient to maintain speed under current volatilities and during potential future domestic or international disruptions.