Deepening Divides: The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System
The period spanning 2025 and early 2026 marked a turning point for the global trade and financial systems as states deployed economic statecraft on a scale not seen in the modern era, accelerating and deepening fragmentation. This insight report offers new quantitative analysis that measures the economic drag of current trade and financial policies as well as the potential cost of an increasingly plausible worst-case scenario.
The period spanning 2025 and early 2026 marked a turning point for the global trade and financial systems as states deployed economic statecraft on a scale not seen in the modern era, accelerating and deepening fragmentation. This insight report offers new quantitative analysis that measures the economic drag of current trade and financial policies as well as the potential cost of an increasingly plausible worst-case scenario.
These developments are putting mounting pressure on the foundational principles that underpin global finance – such as the interoperability of payment systems and the independence of fiscal and monetary policy – and are raising new concerns around norms like the integrity of public data. These global trends present concrete risks and opportunities for emerging markets and developing economies, which are explored in detail in a case study on major African economies.
Deepening Divides: The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System renews the private sector’s call to preserve the core elements of the global financial system that enable economic growth and long-term prosperity.