The number of refugees could double in the next decade, the head of UNHCR says why

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Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR): Like climate, like pandemics, like poverty, like security, forced migration, forced population movements, refugees are a global challenge that requires global responses.

Robin Pomeroy, host, Radio Davos: Welcome to Radio Davos, the podcast from the World Economic Forum that looks at the biggest challenges and how we might solve them. This week: the head of the UN refugee agency on the strain that war is putting on his humanitarian mission.

Filippo Grandi: I'm very worried. You know, I deal with refugees. That's the work of my organisation, 114 million refugees and displaced. The main driver of displacement continues to be conflict.

Robin Pomeroy: The UN High Commissioner for Refugees says humanity’s failure to stop war will have devastating consequences.

Filippo Grandi: If this fragmentation continues, if the Security Council and other institutions continue to be so unable to solve crises, this number, I bet you, in ten years will be doubled again.

Robin Pomeroy: Filippo Grandi says UNHCR’s work is being squeezed from both sides.

Filippo Grandi: Last year was the first one in which we got less resources than the year before, at a time when crises are increasing. This is when the world needs strong humanitarian actors. And unfortunately humanitarian funding is going in the opposite direction.

Robin Pomeroy: And he has no illusions about what the real solutions are.

Filippo Grandi: Humanitarian responses are vital, literally, they save lives. But they're not the solution. The solution lies in political investment, in unity, in searching for political solutions.

Robin Pomeroy: Subscribe to Radio Davos wherever you get your podcasts, or visit wef.ch/podcasts.

I’m Robin Pomeroy at the World Economic Forum, and with UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi...

Filippo Grandi: Making the efforts to reach those solutions.

Robin Pomeroy: This is Radio Davos

Refugees are people who have been forced to leave their country - very often due to war. And at a time of global disharmony, where migration is a hot political topic in many countries, a huge increase in refugee numbers will prove a significant challenge.

The person who heads the United Nations’ refugee agency, UNHCR, says he is worried that the number of refugees worldwide could double in the next decade.

My colleague Kateryna Gordichuk spoke to Filippo Grandi at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos. He had lots to say, on forgotten crises, on reduced humanitarian aid, and on the failure of humans to put an end to war.

Kateryna started by asking Filippo Grandi why he was there, in Davos.

Filippo Grandi: I'm here because we hope that the issue of refugees, of forced displacements in the bigger context of migratory movements, we hope that this will remain and even be more at the centre of the world agenda.

I've been here in many past editions when refugee issues were more in the headlines. Think of the Ukraine war, the first year. Think of when Syrian and other refugees streamed into Europe. And I remember that refugee issues were then very central, even here in the Davos debate.

Now, debate, inevitably, because Davos reflects the world, these issues remain - and I want to thank the WEF for keeping them on the agenda - but we struggle a bit to keep them at the centre.

And it is so important because like climate, like pandemics, like poverty, like security, forced migration, forced population movements, refugees are a global challenge that requires global responses.

Kateryna Gordichuk: As you said, even at this event, a lot of leaders and maybe the global community is sadly losing interest in refugee issues. Why do you think that is? And what can we do to bring it more to the forefront of priorities for leaders?

Filippo Grandi: It's a very important point. Actually, you know, I've worked with crises, humanitarian crises and refugees for almost 40 years. It will be 40 years in a few days, literally. And I've seen this issue go in and out of public attention. So it's not a one way trend. It's a very intermittent trend.

But if we want to forge real responses, and the WEF has been very good at working on refugee employment, for example, there is a big initiative here, we need to ensure that this up and down of attention is transformed into a more constant focus.

For this, I think it is very important to convey one message: that refugee crises are not important only when they happen in rich countries. That was the case of the Ukrainian refugee crisis, mostly in Europe. Same for the Syrian refugee crisis when people came across the Mediterranean into Europe. It's important to convey the sense that the majority of refugees live actually in countries with few resources, poor or middle income countries.

So I hope that going forward, the WEF will help us put these crisis as well in focus. Think of Sudan: 7 million people forced from their homes in the last year by this insane war between military groups. Think of the Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. They've been now seven years, six years and a half, in Bangladesh, almost a million of them. And we're losing world attention, which means that we are losing support for humanitarian assistance and for trying to solve this problem in the political domain.

So I really, I gave only two examples, but I really hope that the WEF and its members can help us make this a more constant focus by conveying the message, this is a global phenomenon.

And last point that is important to remember, even for rich countries, if you have 1 million Sudanese refugees, out of those 7 million, 1 million, 1.2 have gone out of the country already have become refugees. Actually, we have already seen some of them move from Chad, for example, to Libya, Tunisia. Then they cross the Mediterranean. They arrive in Europe. So an unresolved crisis, unattended crisis, very much far away can have an impact also in terms of displacement in rich countries.

So we're all in it, just like climate, just like global health issues. We are all concerned and we need to respond together.

Kateryna Gordichuk: Mr. Grandi, this point that you made is so poignant, that when it's close to us, that's when we start to notice that. But even now, if the crisis in Ukraine escalates, this will concern Europe. If the crisis in the Middle East escalates, this will concern a much larger Middle East as well. How do we bring it back to the individual, that it concerns sll of us globally?

Filippo Grandi: Surely. And we also should add one point. What you describe is the reality. I mentioned it myself. Unfortunately, the logic of communication, of power, of resources, drives this issue in that direction, that it becomes an issue when it impacts the rich people.

But we should not forget that Ukrainians received a lot of attention, although, you know, I'm about to go to Ukraine and one message I will have is, don't forget Ukraine now that all limelight is on Gaza, in the Middle East, and rightly so.

So it's very volatile. But, you know, everybody, I think, in Europe accepted Ukrainian refugees because everybody could see the relationship between flight, fleeing, running, and the bombs, the Russian bombs raining on them. Well, the Sudanese people are suffering from the same. The people in the Democratic Republic of Congo are every day fleeing atrocious violence perpetrated against them by armed groups, including through rape, mutilation, forced recruitment of children.

So these are unspeakable acts of violence that cause people to flee. We need to create that understanding and sympathy, which will help do two things: One, reverse the negative narrative around refugees that often for political reasons, prevails, and the other one: motivate all of us, not out of common interest only, but also out of commitment to addressing humanitarian problems, to address also the difficult and faraway crisis.

Kateryna Gordichuk: It seems that it's becoming even harder for world leaders to cooperate and to to kind of agree on some things today than maybe a couple of years ago.

On the Ukraine crisis, there was so much agreement right away. Whereas perhaps for other conflicts, that's not the case. Why do you think there's this decline in global cooperation and what has caused it?

Filippo Grandi: This is because the geopolitics are changing. We went from essentially a bipolar world during the Cold War. It's a bit simplified, but that's what it was: US and Soviet Union.

We went through a phase after the Berlin Wall fell of almost one superpower, the United States. And gradually, actually not so gradually, quite quickly, we have entered a multipolar world where the balance of power is much more difficult and is still very much work in progress.

So we see a lot of imbalance of power or instability of power and a lot more of rivalries between states without strong leadership by any.

So in this context, unfortunately, we have to deal with challenges like climate change, like refugees, like global poverty, I would say, like insecurity, like terrorism, that require, imperatively in this very interconnected world, working together.

So unfortunately, you have kind of two lines crossing in the wrong way: a greater need of cooperation, but also a greater fragmentation happening at the same time. This is really very bad.

You mentioned Ukraine. True. There was unity, at least in the humanitarian side, in helping refugees. But you need unity in solving the war, in finding a political solution. And there we see huge fragmentation.

So that is why I'm very worried. You know, I deal with refugees. That's the work, my work, the work of my organisation, 114 million refugees and displaced. The main driver of displacement, there's many, but continues to be conflict. So if this fragmentation continues, if the Security Council and other institutions continue to be so unable to solve crises, this number, I bet you in ten years will be doubled again as it has been the case.

Kateryna Gordichuk: High Commissioner Grandi, of course, we cannot ignore the fact that one of the biggest headlines today is in Gaza and you opened your own Global Refugee Forum with a strong plea for a ceasefire. Can you tell me why it is so urgent right now with what needs to be done by world leaders to address this crisis?

Filippo Grandi: Let me preface this by making it clear: UNHCR is not involved in this particular humanitarian response, simply because Palestinians and Palestinian refugees are under the umbrella of a special United Nations organisation called UNWRA. So there's a division of labour. But of course we are concerned like everybody.

And why ceasefire is important, and even more so, why a political solution is important is because: one, the present incredible, devastating loss of life and destruction of infrastructure has to end. And this can only end with a ceasefire, with the liberation of hostages, and with the access of humanitarian assistance inside the Gaza Strip.

But then the important work has to start, and the important work is really going back to the drawing board in terms of peace process.

I've said it many times. I said it to the Security Council. I lived myself as a former head of UNWRA in the Middle East for many years, in years in which I could see already back then, the peace process that was promising in the 90s become almost - it breaks my heart to say it - an object of ridicule. You know something that was not necessary. Not possible. So we lost years and years of precious time in which we could have invested in this peace process.

So now, although it's much more difficult than 10 or 20 years ago, we need to go back to that drawing board.

And I know there's discussions happening. It's important that the ceasefire gives space for this discussion to take centre stage. Otherwise, and that's your question, otherwise look, we are already seeing it. People are saying we need to prevent this conflict from spreading. It is already spreading. Look at what's happening in the Red Sea. Look at what's happening in Lebanon. The conflict has already has already spread in an extremely volatile region, and the spread can cause just further human suffering.

Kateryna Gordichuk: I know it is a complicated question because there's so many actors involved, but what is the Forum's role in this in your view?

Filippo Grandi: The Forum and, you know, I've been associated with this Forum for decades. I was a Young Global Leader 30 years ago or 25 years ago, and I have always admired the fact that the Forum is a convening place, is a place that, a bit like the United Nations, offers a space for people to talk. It is important that the Forum maintains that capacity to convene, to bring together people that have different views and to offer early opportunities for negotiations to start.

And sometimes it is important that this happens offline. Because these negotiations are difficult. They require discretion. They require confidential contacts. And this has happened in the past year. And I hope that it will happen again.

And of course, the Forum is also a great advocacy place. And therefore, like I said, let it be an advocacy place also for organisations like mine and not only for the issues that are in the headlines, but also for those that are not.

Kateryna Gordichuk: Something that you also discussed when you talked about different regions experiencing a lot of refugees crises is crisis fuelled by climate change? Right now there's a lot of conversation that people are already, um, experiencing difficulties. They have to flee because of climate disasters. How prevalent is this issue going to become, and what should we do to prepare for climate refugee crises?

Filippo Grandi: Look, this is happening already. I don't like very much the expression climate refugees, but we have to accept that climate change, in many of its manifestations, forces people to move.

I don't use one expression because I think that these are many different situations. You know, people must move in some countries because the sea is rising and their land is being submerged. That's displacement of one kind. There are countries in which people have to flee from one day to the other because of intensification of natural disasters, drought, floods.

Then there are situations, and this is where my organisation is mostly involved, where climate change is creating conflict. Horn of Africa, Sahel in West Africa, the deprivation of resources pitches communities that have existed for many centuries together, one against the other. And this causes displacement. We see it all over the continent in Africa. But this is also displacement, different from rising sea levels are natural disasters. You follow me. So it's a complex interrelation.

What is important is that the international community recognises that as an important impact of climate change. And I was at COP28, that was recognised. Now we need to scale the responses. The responses are several. Some are more in the family of mitigation. Others are more in the family of prevention issues that can also, we're working together with many organisations on all of them. It is important that the COP process, which is the most important process in this respect, takes this into account. And when finally resources will become available at scale to address the impact of climate change, that some resources are also destined to address the displacement impact that climate change is having.

Kateryna Gordichuk: For leaders who would like to tackle humanitarian crises, as complex as they are, where should they start today?

Filippo Grandi: I would say they should start from increasing humanitarian assistance. This is my ninth year in this job of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Last year, my eighth year, was the first one in which we got less resources than the year before, and therefore we had to reduce by a good percentage of our workforce, 78% at a time when crises are increasing.

So this is when the world needs strong humanitarian actors. And unfortunately, funding humanitarian funding is going in the opposite direction.

The other appeal is that humanitarian responses are vital. Literally, they save lives, but they're not the solution. The solution lies in political investment, in unity, in searching for political solutions and making the efforts to reach those solutions, as in the Middle East and everywhere else.

So a strong appeal for unity of action in peacemaking, which is something that has been intermittently strong in the world in the post-war period. I think it's at an all time low. So that's catastrophic, because if that continues to be ineffective and humanitarian crises will continue and humanitarian resources decline, the combination is a lose-lose. But the combination is going to condemn many people to death and suffering.

Robin Pomeroy: UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi was talking to Kateryna Gordichuk.

He mentioned the World Economic Forum’s work on employment for refugees. The Forum launched the Refugee Employment Alliance in 2022 to increase employment and employability opportunities for refugees and build capability and resilience for future refugee crises.

So far, partners of the Alliance have hired over 54,000 refugees across the globe. By December 2027, they expect to hire an additional 125,000 refugees and support 33,000 with mentoring, skills training, and access to digital devices. Find out more on our website - link in the show notes or search for the Refugee Employment Alliance.

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This episode of Radio Davos was presented by me, Robin Pomeroy. Studio production was by Taz Kelleher.

We will be back next week, but for now thanks to you for listening and goodbye.